Should I buy NMDC Steel stock in 2025?

What is NMDC Steel?

How much is NMDC Steel stock?

The price of NMDC Steel stock is rising this week. Currently trading at ₹39.01 per share, the stock has gained 1.32% in the last 24 hours and is up 8.00% over the past week.

The P/E ratio is not applicable at this time as the company is loss-making, and no dividend has been declared. The stock's beta of 1.28 indicates higher than average volatility, making it an option best suited for investors comfortable with dynamic market movements.

Our full analysis on NMDC Steel stock

Having reviewed NMDC Steel’s most recent financial disclosures and evaluated the stock’s multi-year performance trajectory, our analysis brings together a rigorous synthesis of financial indicators, technical momentum, market sentiment, and relevant peer comparisons processed through proprietary algorithms. The result is a data-driven perspective on a company at the heartbeat of India’s evolving steel industry—one showing clear signals of transformation and potential for significant upside. So, why might NMDC Steel stock once again become a strategic entry point into the high-growth Indian steel sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past year, NMDC Steel’s stock price has faced significant volatility, declining by approximately 40.4%. Yet, beneath the surface, the recent price action reflects a notable shift: the share price has rebounded 8.0% over the past week and 8.66% over the last month, currently trading at ₹39.01 on the NSE—comfortably above key short-term support levels. The 52-week low of ₹32.13 now appears firmly established, with the current momentum indicating renewed market confidence.

March and April 2025 brought pivotal developments. Most notably, the Nagarnar Steel Plant, a flagship greenfield project, reached rated capacity, immediately setting daily production records. Hot metal output increased by 8.5% month-on-month in April, highlighting not only operational progress but also management’s determination to move from project phase to full production. Market sentiment further improved on March 19, 2025, as the Directorate General of Trade Remedies recommended a 12% safeguard duty on selected steel products—a move anticipated to benefit domestic players like NMDC Steel by ensuring a more level playing field against imports.

In terms of sector backdrop, India’s domestic steel consumption remains on an accelerating trajectory, driven by public infrastructure expenditure, housing demand, and a resurgent manufacturing sector. With strategic government backing—including a 60.79% holding by the President of India—NMDC Steel sits at the intersection of policy support and sectoral tailwinds.

Technical Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.69 remains neutral, indicating further room for upside before reaching overbought territory.
• MACD at 0.38 signals bullish momentum, while a recent stochastic crossover (May 16, 2025, weekly) bolsters the case for continued upward movement.
• The current price is above key moving averages:
• 20-day SMA: 36.01
• 50-day SMA: 35.37
• 100-day SMA: 37.98
• All are surpassed, marking robust underlying strength.
• Although the stock continues to trade below its 200-day SMA (44.27)—a classic signpost for long-term sentiment—the recent surge suggests a powerful reversal from oversold levels.

Notably, key support levels now cluster around ₹38.43 and ₹37.21, while resistance lies just above current pricing at ₹39.07, then ₹39.65 and ₹40.87. With volume rising in tandem with price, technical momentum appears to be coalescing around a new bullish phase, suggesting this level could represent an ideal entry for those seeking medium-term appreciation.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, NMDC Steel’s story rests on the successful commissioning and commercial ramp-up of the Nagarnar Steel Plant—a 3 MTPA integrated facility in Chhattisgarh that stands as one of India’s most advanced, with innovation credentials such as the widest public sector Thin Slab caster (rollable width of 1650mm).

• Revenue Growth: Q4 FY2024-25 reported revenue of ₹2,119.54 crore, up an outstanding 39.23% quarter-on-quarter, making it one of India’s fastest-growing steel companies by top-line expansion at this formative stage.
• Profitability: While the company remains loss-making (-₹757.78 crore net loss in Q4), the majority of losses reflect start-up and commissioning costs. The path to breakeven is increasingly plausible as volume scales and operational efficiency improves.
• Attractive Valuation: The price-to-book ratio is just 0.79—well below sector averages—reflecting not just market caution but also significant embedded asset value for patient investors. The absence of a P/E simply highlights the pre-profit phase, while the sector P/E of 33 underscores future normalization potential.
• Structural Strength: With seamless integration to NMDC’s iron ore mines, supply security is unmatched. The NMDC Steel brand is underpinned by government credibility, institutional shareholding (notably LIC), and strategic significance within India’s industrial ecosystem.

Despite necessary caution around current losses and high leverage (debt-to-equity ratio at 45.40%), the scale and pace of revenue expansion, combined with management’s operational focus, point toward a rapid transition from negative margins to positive cash flows, especially as the plant stabilizes.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained high liquidity is a crucial vote of investor confidence. NMDC Steel attracts an average daily trading volume of 5.15 million shares over the past three months, reflecting robust market participation and ease of entry or exit for both institutional and retail participants. The public float is well-distributed, with nearly 19% held by retail investors, complemented by significant institutional (DII, FII) interest. This favorable float composition supports dynamic price discovery and mitigates the risk of illiquidity-induced volatility—especially relevant as new catalysts emerge.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Operational Milestones: The ramp-up at Nagarnar is now well underway, with production records indicating a trajectory toward optimal utilization.
• Sectoral Catalysts: Safeguard duties and supportive industrial policy protect and nurture domestic players, while India’s infrastructure pipeline creates sustained demand growth.
• Innovation: NMDC Steel’s technical capabilities—like its best-in-class Thin Slab caster and sophisticated HR coil production—position the firm at the frontiers of steelmaking efficiency and product versatility.
• ESG Commitment: As a government-backed entity, NMDC Steel is likely to align with India’s national priorities on sustainability and responsible industrial growth, offering additional credibility in a market that increasingly values such credentials.
• Capital Structure Stability: High promoter holding and steady institutional participation ensure oversight and strategic alignment, enhancing long-term stability.

Altogether, these factors position NMDC Steel to capitalize on a multi-year capex cycle, earnings normalization, and eventual re-rating as losses narrow and operating leverage is realized.

Investment Strategies

• Short-term: Technical signals suggest the current consolidation above ₹39, combined with surging production, supports positions ahead of potential further upward moves—especially upon clear breakouts above resistance at ₹39.65 and ₹40.87.
• Medium-term: As operational milestones at Nagarnar are achieved and the market prices in full production, scope exists for material multiple expansion and closing of the valuation gap with sector peers.
• Long-term: Structural strengths (integration with NMDC, government backing, sector-leading assets) present an attractive case for holding through full earnings normalization, as India’s steel consumption continues to expand at a world-leading pace.

Optimal positioning would be at or near current levels, provided one maintains a view toward both technical validation (stops below key support) and fundamental progression (monitoring quarterly loss reduction and capacity utilization updates).

Is It the Right Time to Buy NMDC Steel?

In summary, NMDC Steel stands at a compelling inflection point. Key advantages include:

• Robust revenue acceleration quarter-on-quarter, underpinned by new plant ramp-up.
• Clear technical signals indicating a fledgling yet strengthening bullish trend.
• Exceptional alignment with India’s industrial policy, market dynamics, and government ambitions for self-reliant steel production.
• Deeply discounted valuation versus asset value, offering a buffer against execution risk and providing significant upside as losses are narrowed.
• Healthy and broad-based trading volume, ensuring accessible liquidity and responsive market pricing.

While operational challenges and high leverage warrant careful monitoring, the fundamentals, technicals, and macro catalysts collectively justify renewed investor interest. NMDC Steel may well be entering a new bullish phase, and for those seeking exposure to India’s next-generation steel leaders, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for consideration within a diversified portfolio. With the consolidation of operational momentum, supportive sector policy, and emergent technical positivity, NMDC Steel appears positioned for a re-rating in 2025—and the current market level could prove to be an attractive entry for forward-looking investors.

For those scanning the Indian market for high-conviction, turnaround candidates in core infrastructure sectors, NMDC Steel offers a unique blend of scale, government alignment, and technical setup—setting the stage for a period of dynamic value creation as India’s steel demand story unfolds.

How to buy NMDC Steel stock in India?

Buying NMDC Steel shares online is both simple and secure when you use a regulated broker operating under Indian authorities. Investors typically have two main methods for gaining exposure: the classic spot purchase of shares (becoming a direct shareholder), or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to speculate on price movements without owning the shares. Both methods are accessible via user-friendly platforms, allowing you to get started quickly. To ensure you choose the best fit for your needs, we recommend comparing leading brokers—see our detailed comparison further down the page.

Spot Buying

A cash or spot purchase involves buying NMDC Steel shares directly in your name through an Indian stockbroker. This makes you a real shareholder, eligible for rights like attending AGMs and receiving any future dividends. Most brokers in India charge a fixed commission per order, typically between ₹10–₹30 per trade.

Example: Spot Buying NMDC Steel Shares

Let’s look at a concrete example: If the NMDC Steel share price is ₹39, you can buy approximately 2,530 shares with a ₹100,000 investment (about $1,200), considering a brokerage fee of around ₹400 ($5).

Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10% (to about ₹43), your investment is then worth ₹110,000.

Result: +₹10,000 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment (excluding taxes and minimal brokerage).

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on the price movement of NMDC Steel without owning the actual shares. With CFDs, you trade through a broker’s platform, typically incurring a spread (the slight difference between buy and sell prices) and, if you hold positions overnight, daily financing charges. CFDs allow you to use leverage for greater market exposure.

Example: Trading NMDC Steel via CFD

For example: With a $1,000 (about ₹83,000) stake and 5x leverage, you control a position worth $5,000 (₹415,000).

Gain scenario: If NMDC Steel rises 8% during your holding period, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain on your initial $1,000 (excluding broker fees and overnight charges).

Final Advice

Before investing in NMDC Steel—whether through direct cash buying or CFD trading—it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and conditions, as these can affect your net returns. The best method depends on your individual goals: spot buying for long-term investors seeking ownership, or CFDs for active traders seeking to benefit from shorter-term price swings and leverage. Take time to explore our broker comparator further down the page to make an informed, confident start to your journey as an NMDC Steel investor!

Our 7 tips for buying NMDC Steel stock

The latest news about NMDC Steel

NMDC Steel's share price surged 8% over the past week, outpacing the domestic benchmark indices. This strong performance follows an increase in positive technical signals, including bullish momentum above key short- and mid-term moving averages, and is supported by increased trading volume. The recent price action is underpinned by tangible operational progress at the company’s flagship Nagarnar Steel Plant and improved sentiment towards the steel sector regionally.

The Nagarnar Steel Plant achieved full rated capacity in late April 2025, setting new production records across major units. Reaching rated capacity marks a critical operational milestone for NMDC Steel, signaling that the ramp-up phase is advancing successfully. Daily hot metal and liquid steel output hit all-time highs, confirming steady progress in stabilising and optimising the new integrated facility. This achievement places the company in a stronger position to scale up deliveries and compete within the Indian steel market.

Hot metal production increased by 8.5% month-on-month in April 2025, evidencing operational momentum at the Nagarnar plant. The plant produced 230,111 tonnes of hot metal in April, reflecting both improved operational efficiency and successful commissioning of ancillary units. Sustained month-on-month production growth positions NMDC Steel to progressively leverage economies of scale, narrowing operating losses and supporting future revenue generation as the facility approaches optimal utilisation.

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% safeguard duty on certain steel imports in March, supporting Indian producers. This regulatory development, directly benefiting domestic steel makers like NMDC Steel, has significantly bolstered market sentiment for the sector. The safeguard duty is aimed at protecting Indian steel manufacturers from cheaper overseas competition, potentially ensuring better realisation and improved pricing power for local players in the near-to-medium term.

Technical indicators for NMDC Steel have turned bullish, with a positive MACD and a stochastic crossover in mid-May. These technical signals, combined with the stock’s price now trading above its 20-, 50-, and 100-day simple moving averages, suggest growing investor confidence and positive momentum. While the stock remains volatile and is still below its long-term averages due to historical losses, the recent recovery in price and technical confirmation may present a constructive environment for further upside, especially as operational metrics continue to improve.

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Nishadh Mohammed

Nishadh Mohammed is a seasoned news editor and financial writer, working with HelloSafe since May 2023. Nishadh has developed expertise in financial markets, insurance, and investment products, with a deep understanding of the Canadian financial landscape. He has honed his SEO skills and content marketing strategies while writing for Canadian publishing houses. Armed with a master's in Business Analytics and extensive journalistic experience, Nishadh uniquely combines data proficiency and thorough research to deliver comprehensive and accessible information.