Should I buy NMDC Steel stock in India in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of NMDC Steel for over three years. Every month, lakhs of users in India trust us to decipher market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by NMDC Steel.

What is NMDC Steel?

How much is NMDC Steel stock?

The price of NMDC Steel stock is slightly declining this week.

Currently, it trades at ₹40.50, down 1.20% in the last 24 hours and 1.24% over the past week, with a market capitalization of ₹11,857 crores.

The three-month average daily volume stands at 4.77 million shares. NMDC Steel shows a negative P/E ratio of -5, pays no dividend, and the stock's beta is not available.

Investors should note the improved revenue growth, though the company remains in an operational ramp-up phase, which may translate into increased volatility or future upside potential.

Our full analysis on the NMDC Steel stock

We have conducted a thorough review of NMDC Steel’s most recent financial results, supported by a meticulous assessment of its share price evolution over the last three years. Leveraging our proprietary algorithms, we have synthesized a range of analytics—including financial indicators, technical signals, real-time market data, and peer benchmarking—to bring you an objective, data-driven view. So, why might NMDC Steel stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Indian steel and infrastructure sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

NMDC Steel is currently trading at ₹40.50, reflecting a mild -1.20% intraday movement and a 1.24% decline for the week. Over six months, the stock has eased by approximately 5.9%, and is now down nearly 30% year-on-year, consolidating well below its 52-week high of ₹62.4. However, this moderate correction is aligned with global steel sector trends and presents a potentially advantageous set-up, especially as India’s steel demand is projected to rise at an 8–9% pace through 2025. Recent highlights include the successful commissioning of commercial production at Nagarnar and progressive improvements in quarterly financials, with clear evidence of operational ramp-up and margin recovery.

Technical analysis

Technical indicators for NMDC Steel denote a constructive, forward-looking stance for accumulation-minded investors. The stock remains within a broad range between its major 52-week support at ₹32.1 and resistance at ₹62.4, with the current price well-supported by the lower end of the band. Recent moving average trends show stabilization, while the RSI (relative strength index) is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating that the stock is in a consolidation phase. The latest MACD readings present a slightly bullish bias, suggesting that selling momentum is dissipating. This neutral-to-bullish technical set-up may offer an ideal springboard for position building, especially when combined with upcoming fundamental catalysts.

Fundamental analysis

From a fundamental standpoint, NMDC Steel displays the classic attributes of a turnaround opportunity in the Indian metals space. FY25 saw revenues surging by 179% to ₹8,503 crores—an exceptional improvement driven by the ramp-up of both production and sales at the new Nagarnar facility. The company’s most recent quarter delivered a 54% year-on-year revenue increase accompanied by narrowing net losses (down 45% from last year). Operational losses and negative ROE (-16.6%) remain, but are materially improving as the company transitions from high capex to stabilizing cash flows. With privileged access to high-grade iron ore, government backing, and a modern, integrated facility with a wide (1,650mm) public-sector hot strip mill, NMDC Steel is structurally positioned to emerge as a leading low-carbon and API-grade steel provider. Its negative P/E ratio reflects near-term losses typical for a business in the ramp-up phase, suggesting latent value as margins turn positive.

Volume and liquidity

Market confidence in NMDC Steel is underscored by a healthy three-month average trading volume of 4.77 million shares, supporting robust liquidity and efficient price formation. The stock’s float is well balanced: the Indian government retains a controlling 60.8% stake, with institutional investors—both domestic (16%) and foreign (4.6%)—signaling heightened credibility and potential for future rerating as results continue to improve. Public investors’ nearly 19% share supports dynamic valuation and a broad, engaged shareholder base.

Catalysts and positive outlook

• Ongoing commissioning and scaling-up at the Nagarnar plant (3 MTPA capacity) means quarter-on-quarter operational gains and scope for improved margins.
• India’s supportive policy environment and fast-rising steel demand, projected at nearly 9% growth for 2025, create a favourable macro landscape for volume ramp-up.
• Strategic proximity to rich Bailadila iron ore mines reduces raw material risk and enhances production cost competitiveness, a vital advantage in volatile commodity cycles.
• Technological investments, notably the public sector’s widest hot strip mill, provide competitive edges in API-grade and low-carbon steel segments, which are in growing demand domestically and globally.
• External ESG factors—such as lower carbon intensity and increasing demand for green steel—are set to benefit NMDC Steel as it sharpens its operational profile and attracts global investors.

Investment strategies

• Short-term: Price consolidation above the ₹32–36 support zone, with a reduced selling momentum, makes this an attractive base for tactical accumulation, particularly for risk-tolerant investors watching for the next operational update or bullish sector moves.
• Medium-term: As earnings visibility improves (with quarterly losses narrowing and revenue scaling up), a retracement toward 52-week highs seems plausible, given sector-wide tailwinds and improved operational ratios. Staged buying on dips aligned with news flow or plant output data could optimize returns.
• Long-term: Investors looking for exposure to the full cycle of India's steel expansion will appreciate NMDC Steel’s combination of modern capacity, resource security, and government endorsement. With the worst of the earnings drag likely behind, and further rerating potential as cashflow stabilizes, the current valuation could provide a solid base for compounding gains.

A methodical accumulation strategy near support levels, or ahead of key catalysts such as quarterly earnings or major production ramp-ups, may offer an optimal risk/reward balance.

Is it the right time to buy NMDC Steel?

NMDC Steel’s significant revenue surge, rapid narrowing of operational losses, privileged resource access, and strong government backing together lend substantial weight to a bullish thesis. While legacy quarterly losses and a negative P/E ratio are not uncommon for companies at this phase of growth, the fundamentals now justify renewed interest. With technical downside appearing circumscribed and a wave of sector and company-specific catalysts in sight, the stock may be entering a pivotal new bullish phase.

In summary, NMDC Steel appears to offer an excellent, well-timed opportunity for investors who understand India’s evolving metals landscape and are looking for early-stage exposure to a next-generation steel champion. As both operational and financial indicators trend in the right direction and the company’s strategic assets come online, NMDC Steel seems positioned for a re-rating that will reward patient, conviction-driven capital. Key to success will be an ongoing focus on efficiency, execution, and monitoring technical inflection points that may signal the next leg higher for this ambitious Indian steel leader.

How to buy NMDC Steel stock in India?

Investing in NMDC Steel stock online is simple and secure using a regulated Indian broker. Retail investors can typically choose between buying shares directly (spot buying) or trading via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), both available on popular online trading platforms. Each method offers different benefits—spot buying gives you direct ownership, while CFDs provide leverage and flexibility. For a closer comparison of available brokers and their features, please refer to the detailed comparison further down this page.

Spot buying

A cash purchase (spot buying) means you directly own NMDC Steel shares, becoming a shareholder and eligible for potential dividends and voting rights. Indian brokers usually charge a fixed commission per order, often between ₹20 and ₹100.

Example of a Gain Scenario with NMDC Steel Stock

If the NMDC Steel share price is ₹40.50, you can buy around 24 shares with a ₹1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around ₹80. ✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth ₹1,100. Result: +₹100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading enables you to speculate on NMDC Steel's share price without owning the actual shares. Fees include the spread (difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing costs if you hold your CFD position for more than a day. Using leverage, you can increase both your exposure and potential returns, but keep in mind that risks also rise.

CFD Gain Scenario: NMDC Steel

You open a CFD position on NMDC Steel shares with 5x leverage and a ₹1,000 stake. This gives you a market exposure of ₹5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. Result: +₹400 gain, on a bet of ₹1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Always compare brokers’ fees, features, and trading conditions before you place your order; you’ll find a broker comparison tool further down this page. Choosing between spot buying and CFDs depends on your investment goals, risk appetite, and preference for ownership or flexibility.

Our 7 tips for buying NMDC Steel stock

The latest news about NMDC Steel

NMDC Steel posts robust revenue growth of 54% year-on-year in Q4 FY25, indicating strong demand. The company reported quarterly revenue of ₹2,838 crores, reflecting accelerated sales as the new Nagarnar plant scales up. This growth marks a continued trend, with annual revenue up 179% in FY25 compared to FY24.

Losses narrow significantly amid operational ramp-up, showcasing progress towards profitability. Operating loss for Q4 FY25 improved to ₹291 crores from ₹956 crores a year earlier, and net loss decreased by 45% to ₹473 crores. These figures highlight improving efficiency and cost management as full commercial production is reached.

The government of India reinforces oversight with the appointment of Ashish Chatterjee as director in June 2025. This governance development signals strong regulatory support and institutional monitoring, essential for a public sector steel producer in a critical phase of capacity expansion.

NMDC Steel’s 3 MTPA Nagarnar plant positions the company for long-term market leadership in India’s steel sector. Strategically located near high-grade iron ore mines, the advanced Nagarnar facility enables efficient raw material access and supports the company’s move toward high-quality, low-carbon steel production at scale.

Domestic steel demand in India projected to grow by 8-9% in 2025, providing a favourable macro environment. Rising consumption driven by infrastructure and construction sectors, together with government backing, offers a positive backdrop for NMDC Steel’s continued growth and improves the outlook for operational break-even in coming quarters.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.