Should I buy Indian Oil Corporation stock in 2025?

What is Indian Oil Corporation?

How much is Indian Oil Corporation stock?

The price of Indian Oil Corporation stock is rising this week. Currently trading at ₹144.69, IOC has seen a 1-week gain of 1.64% while its last 24-hour change is slightly negative at -0.02%.

The stock's beta of 0.71 suggests lower volatility compared to the broader market. With relatively stable performance and attractive dividends, IOC may appeal to investors seeking balance between yield and moderate price fluctuations.

Our full analysis on Indian Oil Corporation stock

Having carefully assessed Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOC) latest quarterly and annual financial results, along with its three-year stock performance, we present an integrative analysis founded on robust financial indicators, technical signals, sectoral data, and comparative competitor benchmarks processed through our proprietary research algorithms. Amid pivotal industry and regulatory changes, IOC’s present valuation and intrinsic momentum prompt renewed market attention. So, why might Indian Oil Corporation once again become a strategic entry point into India’s broad-based energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past six months, IOC has delivered strong equity momentum, appreciating approximately 20.7% and decisively outperforming the broader sectoral indices during this interval. While the most recent year shows a headline decline of -12.3%—largely attributed to cyclicality in crude oil dynamics and periodic regulatory interventions—recent trend reversals and sector tailwinds suggest a shifting market narrative. Monthly and weekly returns reflect this positive recalibration: a gain of 7.7% over the last month and 1.6% in the last week underscore renewed investor confidence.

A critical underpinning of this turnaround can be traced to IOC’s remarkable Q4 performance, where the company delivered a startling 50% YoY net profit increase, reaching ₹7,264.85 crores on stable top-line revenue. Add to this, a proposed final dividend of ₹7.00 per share (yielding 4.8% at current prices) and further investments in green subsidiaries like Terra Clean Limited. These recent positives occur against a macro backdrop of stable domestic demand, government support for public sector undertakings, and strategic policy moves advancing energy security and transition—tilting the risk-reward calculus for India’s largest downstream oil player sharply in favour of opportunity.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, IOC’s chart structure and momentum indicators provide compelling evidence of a bullish setup. The share price of ₹144.69 currently trades above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Notably:

The only exception, the 200-Day SMA at ₹144.79, sits marginally above the market price, suggesting the possibility of a medium-term breakout as the consolidation phase matures. The momentum oscillator (RSI 14) stands at 62.13—firmly in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold—leaving ample room for sustained moves higher. Meanwhile, a Stochastic value of 48.89 and ADX at 19.84 signal a weak trend, but also potential for fresh directional momentum should the resistance at ₹146.68 be breached.

On the downside, strong technical support at ₹137.61 and ₹134.42 limits risk. With low volatility reflected in an ATR of 3.79 and a muted MACD (-0.05), IOC’s price action suggests stability and an environment primed for trend acceleration. These technical fundamentals, paired with increased buying volumes, reinforce the case for a constructive near- to medium-term outlook.

Fundamental Analysis

IOC’s Q4 and FY2025 results offer persuasive reasons for bullish sentiment:

• Net Sales: ₹194,967.02 crores (Q4) and ₹758,105.81 crores (FY2025)
• Net Profit: Q4 profit soared +50% YoY to ₹7,264.85 crores
• Annual Net Profit: ₹12,028.40 crores
• EPS (FY2025): ₹9.87

Despite a slight top-line contraction (-1.5% YoY in Q4), operational profitability has meaningfully expanded, reflecting superior cost management, higher refining margins, and beneficial product mix optimization. Return metrics are likewise resurgent: ROE stands at 7.29% and ROCE has accelerated to 22.2%, a significant jump over the prior year’s 8.4%. Moreover, the debt-to-equity ratio stays contained at 0.76, keeping the company on solid financial ground.

IOC’s valuation profile is equally attractive. At a P/E of 15.02, the stock is modestly above but still comparable to the sector average, and a P/B of 1.51 indicates assets remain attractively priced. The compelling dividend yield of 4.84% enhances total shareholder return—a rare combination of growth and income in today’s market. IOC’s government-backing (51.5% promoter holding) further reinforces stability, a critical differentiator in volatile commodities markets.

Structurally, IOC’s strengths are manifest: the company boasts nine refineries across India (the nation’s largest refining capacity), a vast retail network ensuring broad-based revenue, and deliberate expansion into high-growth verticals—petrochemicals, natural gas, and renewables—that position it well for India’s ongoing energy diversification.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained average daily trading volume of nearly 23 million shares over the past month is a hallmark of institutional confidence and deep market liquidity. Such robust turnover empowers both individual and professional investors to enter positions efficiently without significant price disruption, while the modest float enables dynamic price resets in response to new information or catalysts. Furthermore, the stock’s low long-term beta (0.71) signals reduced volatility compared to the market, allowing for effective portfolio risk management.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several well-defined external and internal catalysts could propel IOC into its next growth phase:

• Dividend Policy: The board’s recommendation of a ₹7.00 per share final dividend not only signals cash flow health but also secures IOC’s status as a top-yield stock in the BSE 100.
• Strategic Expansion: Recent investments in clean energy subsidiaries illustrate a proactive approach to energy transition, potentially unlocking new avenues of future earnings.
• Government Policy Support: As a government-majority enterprise, IOC remains a linchpin in India’s energy security. Continued policy backing for domestic refining, retail expansion, and diversification insulates against industry shocks and enhances predictability.
• Improving Profitability: A 50% YoY profit surge despite a slight revenue contraction demonstrates operating leverage and highly efficient downstream operations.
• Macro Tailwinds: India’s surging fuel consumption, expanding industrial base, and regulatory thrust for energy self-reliance and decarbonization furnish a rich context for future demand growth.
• ESG Progress: For ESG-sensitive investors, initiatives in renewables and green energy affiliates indicate a company strategically navigating the energy transition and regulatory evolution.

Investment Strategies

Given these strong fundamentals and technicals, IOC seems to present multiple avenues for portfolio positioning:

• Short-Term Opportunities:
• Potential for a technical breakout above ₹146.68 resistance, with profitable swing trades possible as technical momentum builds.
• Attractive dividend capture strategies ahead of the ex-dividend date.
• Medium-Term Outlook:
• Robust Q4 performance and improving ROCE suggest a positive earnings revision cycle, which could drive rerating.
• Upcoming catalysts—such as further green investments and retail expansion—could spur a medium-term revaluation towards consensus and upper broker targets (₹160–₹165).
• Long-Term Positioning:
• Entry near current levels is substantiated by historical support and a view to compounding through dividends and structural growth.
• IOC’s continued role as the backbone of Indian energy distribution, with diversification into new energy corridors, underpins a compelling long-term compounder thesis.

In essence, the ideal positioning may be achieved either at current technical lows (with defined risk levels near ₹134–₹137) or preemptively ahead of expected catalysts such as policy announcements, further green investments, or dividend distributions.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Indian Oil Corporation?

To summarise, Indian Oil Corporation unites several compelling forces at this stage in the cycle. The company’s sharply improved profitability, expanding margins, and enhanced ROCE deliver clear evidence of structural operational gains, while a sector-leading dividend translates into tangible investor rewards. The underlying technical posture, with price action sustained above all major short- and medium-term moving averages, signals ongoing accumulation and the potential for a new bullish phase.

With high trading liquidity, a government-backed balance sheet, and strategic momentum in clean and diversified energy, IOC’s risk/reward profile appears skewed convincingly to the upside—even more so for those seeking core defensive exposure with income enhancement.

While oil price volatility and regulatory shifts remain key considerations, the outlook for IOC in 2025 and beyond seems to justify renewed and serious investor interest. The company’s fundamentals, technical landscape, and visible long-term catalysts position Indian Oil Corporation as a stock that may be entering a promising new chapter for both growth- and income-oriented investors alike.

For those scanning India’s energy landscape for resilient, value-driven opportunities with significant upside, Indian Oil Corporation’s current phase seems to represent an excellent entry point—balancing capital appreciation with stability and robust shareholder rewards.

How to buy Indian Oil Corporation stock in India?

Buying Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) stock online is both simple and secure when you use a regulated broker in India. Today’s technology allows you to open an account, verify your identity, and invest directly on the National Stock Exchange with just a few clicks. Retail investors have two main options: direct spot buying (purchasing real shares for your portfolio), or trading price movements with CFDs (Contracts for Difference), which appeal to more active traders. Each method has its own features and costs, so it’s important to review your options. You’ll find a detailed comparison of leading brokers further down the page to help you make an informed choice.

Spot Buying

A cash purchase of Indian Oil Corporation stock means buying real shares on the stock exchange, making you a shareholder with all related benefits (like dividends). In India, most brokers charge a nominal fixed commission per order—often between ₹20 and ₹30 per trade (around $0.25–$0.40 USD) plus minimal government levies or GST. For example, if IOC shares trade at ₹144.69 (≈$1.73 USD per share), a $1,000 stake (approx. ₹83,000 at an exchange rate of ₹83 per USD) allows you to buy about 574 shares, factoring in a brokerage fee of ₹400 (≈$5).

Example: Spot Buying Gain Scenario

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the IOC share price rises by 10%, your shares would be worth approximately $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain—an increase of 10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on IOC’s price movements without owning actual shares. With CFDs, you can profit on both rising and falling prices and use leverage (borrowed capital) to increase your exposure. The main costs are the spread (difference between bid and ask price) and overnight financing if you hold positions for more than a day. For example, with a $1,000 stake and 5x leverage, you control a position worth $5,000 in IOC shares.

Example: CFD Trading Gain Scenario

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the IOC stock rises by 8%, your CFD position increases by 8% × 5 (leverage) = 40%.
Result: +$400 gain on the initial $1,000 bet (before fees and financing).

Final Advice

Broker commissions, spreads, platform features, and regulatory safeguards can vary significantly—so always compare conditions before investing. Deciding between spot buying and CFDs depends on your objectives: long-term investors seeking dividends may prefer direct purchases, while active traders might favour CFDs. Explore the broker comparison below to select the solution best suited to your investment goals and trading style.

Our 7 tips for buying Indian Oil Corporation stock

The latest news about Indian Oil Corporation

Indian Oil Corporation reported a 50% year-on-year jump in Q4 FY2025 net profit to ₹7,264.85 crores.
This remarkable profit growth was achieved despite a 1.52% decrease in quarterly net sales, highlighting improved refining margins and operational efficiency. The strong bottom-line performance boosts investor confidence and reflects the company’s ability to manage volatility in crude prices and regulatory constraints. Additionally, the basic earnings per share for the quarter reached ₹5.28, further underpinning the positive momentum in core profitability for the period.

The company’s board recommended a final dividend of ₹7.00 per equity share for FY 2023-24, implying a dividend yield of 4.84%.
This attractive payout level underscores IOC’s continued commitment to rewarding shareholders, particularly appealing to income-focused investors in India. The move also demonstrates financial stability and strong cash generation capabilities, positioning IOC favorably among large-cap dividend plays within the domestic energy sector.

Technical indicators signal bullish momentum with key short- to mid-term moving averages above the current share price.
The 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages are all bullish as of May 19, 2025, showing sustained upward price movement over recent weeks and months. The relative strength index (RSI) at 62.13 remains in neutral territory, indicating further potential for price appreciation without immediate risk of overbought conditions. Together, these technical signals suggest positive near-term sentiment among market participants.

Brokerage sentiment is largely constructive, with major houses including Motilal Oswal and Emkay Global reiterating BUY ratings during May 2025.
Target prices ranging from ₹160 to ₹165 indicate further upside from current levels and reflect confidence in IOC’s earnings quality and strategic initiatives, such as expansion into petrochemicals and cleaner energy. The consensus target price stands at nearly ₹149, supporting the case for continued institutional and retail investor interest in the stock despite some divergent views among analysts.

IOC’s growth strategy is strengthened by recent investments and solid government backing, with promoter (GoI) holding at 51.5%.
The board’s approval for additional investment in its wholly owned subsidiary, Terra Clean Limited, signals commitment to diversification and future-proofing the business against energy transition risks. Coupled with an improving Return on Capital Employed (22.22% vs. 8.43% last year) and a vast national footprint across nine refineries, IOC is well-placed to capture enduring demand in India’s energy sector while driving innovation in sustainability.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.